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Red170
151041.8
491836.6
420537.7
Blue138
445049.3
294434.4
378922.8
48%Model gave it52%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions8188050150200250300350170138

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1510
#14
41.84.3
27.932.2
Auto-0.5
Teleop42.4
End0.0
blue by 7.5
4450
#21
49.32.4
43.646.0
Auto-0.2
Teleop49.5
End0.0
Second
4205
#44
37.74.3
31.435.7
Auto-0.2
Teleop37.9
End0.0
red by 3.4
2944
#29
34.42.4
28.831.2
Auto-0.1
Teleop34.5
End0.0
Third
4918
#28
36.64.3
25.629.8
Auto-0.2
Teleop36.8
End0.0
red by 13.8
3789
#51
22.82.4
17.820.2
Auto-0.1
Teleop22.9
End0.0