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Red210
95563.4
198384.7
293046.8
Blue152
131862.5
255067.0
446942.2
79%Model gave it21%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions192162100150250210152

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
84.70.3
84.684.8
Auto-0.5
Teleop85.2
End0.0
red by 17.7
67.00.3
67.367.0
Auto-0.1
Teleop67.1
End0.0
Second
955
#10
63.40.3
63.263.5
Auto-0.1
Teleop63.5
End0.0
red by 0.9
62.50.3
62.862.5
Auto1.5
Teleop61.0
End0.0
Third
2930
#43
46.80.3
46.747.0
Auto1.4
Teleop45.4
End0.0
red by 4.6
4469
#24
42.20.3
42.642.2
Auto-0.4
Teleop42.7
End0.0