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Red12
517914.8
398512.4
338622.9
Blue4
449112.9
353312.2
338221.4
58%Model gave it42%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions4340010203050607080124

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3386
#12
22.91.6
17.315.7
Auto-0.2
Teleop23.1
End0.0
red by 1.5
3382
#13
21.42.1
16.914.7
Auto0.3
Teleop21.0
End0.0
Second
5179
#23Sur
14.82.7
11.79.0
Auto-0.1
Teleop14.9
End0.0
red by 1.9
4491
#24Sur
12.92.1
13.010.9
Auto0.5
Teleop12.4
End0.0
Third
3985
#32
12.42.7
15.312.6
Auto-0.0
Teleop12.4
End0.0
red by 0.2
3533
#38
12.22.1
11.79.6
Auto1.7
Teleop10.4
End0.0