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Red52
578615.7
337011.9
541115.8
Blue6
34819.7
261312.6
373530.1
45%Model gave it55%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions39490100150200526

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5411
#15
15.80.6
16.116.7
Auto-0.0
Teleop15.8
End0.0
blue by 14.3
30.12.9
29.826.8
Auto1.3
Teleop28.8
End0.0
Second
5786
#24
15.70.6
15.115.7
Auto-0.2
Teleop15.9
End0.0
red by 3.2
2613
#44
12.62.9
7.34.4
Auto1.3
Teleop11.2
End0.0
Third
3370
#27
11.90.6
11.311.9
Auto1.7
Teleop10.2
End0.0
red by 2.2
3481
#40
9.72.9
12.69.7
Auto-0.6
Teleop10.3
End0.0