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Red52
47215.3
258231.5
399725.7
Blue2
50706.3
550313.4
296615.7
66%Model gave it34%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions43280206080100120522

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2582
#16
31.50.8
18.018.8
Auto-0.1
Teleop31.6
End0.0
red by 15.9
2966
#33
15.72.5
12.610.2
Auto0.8
Teleop14.9
End0.0
Second
3997
#18
25.70.6
17.518.1
Auto0.3
Teleop25.4
End0.0
red by 12.4
5503
#25
13.42.5
7.14.6
Auto0.8
Teleop12.5
End0.0
Third
4721
#52
5.30.6
6.77.3
Auto-0.0
Teleop5.4
End0.0
blue by 1.0
5070
#54
6.32.5
11.79.3
Auto0.0
Teleop6.3
End0.0