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Red33
164211.2
233323.5
296615.7
Blue92
463917.7
288130.2
399922.8
46%Model gave it54%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions405201001502002503003503392

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2333
#49
23.50.2
22.822.6
Auto-0.1
Teleop23.6
End0.0
blue by 6.7
30.22.0
17.219.2
Auto0.2
Teleop30.0
End0.0
Second
2966
#33
15.70.3
11.310.9
Auto0.8
Teleop14.9
End0.0
blue by 7.2
3999
#32
22.82.0
21.523.5
Auto-0.3
Teleop23.1
End0.0
Third
1642
#21
11.20.2
9.18.9
Auto-0.4
Teleop11.7
End0.0
blue by 6.4
4639
#14
17.72.0
13.415.4
Auto-0.7
Teleop18.4
End0.0