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Red112
406138.3
460825.2
369317.7
Blue15
358833.2
292316.8
378914.9
53%Model gave it47%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions585720408010011215

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
38.32.7
24.827.5
Auto-0.1
Teleop38.4
End0.0
red by 5.1
33.22.3
26.624.3
Auto0.5
Teleop32.7
End0.0
Second
25.22.7
15.918.6
Auto-0.0
Teleop25.2
End0.0
red by 8.4
2923
#15
16.82.3
20.518.2
Auto-0.2
Teleop17.0
End0.0
Third
3693
#25
17.72.7
18.020.7
Auto0.2
Teleop17.4
End0.0
red by 2.8
3789
#29
14.92.3
13.811.5
Auto-0.2
Teleop15.0
End0.0