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Red99
406138.3
410411.8
472619.3
Blue57
381226.1
412518.9
369317.7
59%Model gave it41%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions625740801009957

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
38.31.8
35.437.1
Auto-0.1
Teleop38.4
End0.0
red by 12.2
3812
#12
26.10.2
26.226.1
Auto0.1
Teleop26.0
End0.0
Second
4726
#16
19.31.8
18.220.0
Auto-0.2
Teleop19.5
End0.0
red by 0.4
4125
#27
18.90.2
16.015.9
Auto0.3
Teleop18.6
End0.0
Third
4104
#26
11.81.8
10.011.8
Auto-0.1
Teleop11.9
End0.0
blue by 5.9
3693
#25
17.70.2
17.817.7
Auto0.2
Teleop17.4
End0.0