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Red162
131841.1
198365.5
465411.6
Blue64
491138.8
366343.6
574815.9
66%Model gave it34%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions114975015020016264

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
65.50.8
64.665.4
Auto-0.4
Teleop66.0
End0.0
red by 21.9
43.60.5
45.144.5
Auto-0.0
Teleop43.6
End0.0
Second
41.10.8
40.240.9
Auto2.1
Teleop39.1
End0.0
red by 2.3
38.80.5
40.339.7
Auto0.2
Teleop38.6
End0.0
Third
4654
#30
11.60.8
10.611.4
Auto-0.3
Teleop11.9
End0.0
blue by 4.4
5748
#17
15.90.5
17.416.9
Auto-0.2
Teleop16.1
End0.0