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Red95
420526.8
498019.6
382622.9
Blue117
292821.3
491138.8
406017.0
60%Model gave it40%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions5750020408010012095117

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
26.81.9
23.725.6
Auto0.3
Teleop26.5
End0.0
blue by 12.0
38.83.2
30.333.5
Auto0.2
Teleop38.6
End0.0
Second
3826
#10
22.91.9
17.519.3
Auto1.1
Teleop21.8
End0.0
red by 1.6
2928
#15
21.33.2
15.218.4
Auto0.1
Teleop21.2
End0.0
Third
4980
#21
19.61.9
16.718.6
Auto1.2
Teleop18.4
End0.0
red by 2.6
4060
#18
17.05.4
7.112.5
Auto0.4
Teleop16.6
End0.0