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Red136
198365.5
293029.6
29809.5
Blue82
281118.0
491823.8
366343.6
65%Model gave it35%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions937705015013682

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
65.52.1
60.062.1
Auto-0.4
Teleop66.0
End0.0
red by 21.9
43.60.0
43.843.8
Auto-0.0
Teleop43.6
End0.0
Second
29.62.1
26.728.8
Auto0.6
Teleop29.0
End0.0
red by 5.8
4918
#12
23.80.0
21.621.6
Auto-0.2
Teleop24.0
End0.0
Third
2980
#22
9.52.6
7.510.1
Auto-0.1
Teleop9.7
End0.0
blue by 8.5
2811
#14
18.00.0
17.017.0
Auto0.1
Teleop17.9
End0.0