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Red104
461334.8
335424.4
148222.9
Blue97
610620.1
511822.9
321139.3
40%Model gave it60%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions7175405060809010010497

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4613
#12
34.82.3
30.132.4
Auto10.3
Teleop19.1
End5.4
blue by 4.6
39.31.7
37.439.1
Auto13.4
Teleop21.3
End4.6
Second
3354
#10
24.42.3
22.124.4
Auto5.2
Teleop15.7
End3.6
red by 1.5
5118
#32
22.92.8
16.919.6
Auto7.4
Teleop13.2
End2.3
Third
1482
#16
22.92.3
17.619.9
Auto3.8
Teleop14.4
End4.7
red by 2.8
6106
#20
20.11.7
17.919.6
Auto6.2
Teleop11.2
End2.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Breach
67%Breach oddsEarned72%Breach oddsEarned
Capture
0%Capture oddsMissed0%Capture oddsMissed