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Red166
83636.8
141842.6
580429.9
Blue173
12240.0
40135.9
202832.5
55%Model gave it45%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions145141100200166173

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
42.60.2
42.042.2
Auto10.3
Teleop22.5
End9.7
red by 2.6
122
#11
40.00.4
39.539.9
Auto10.5
Teleop25.0
End4.5
Second
836
#8
36.80.2
36.136.3
Auto11.1
Teleop19.6
End6.1
red by 0.9
401
#5
35.90.4
35.435.8
Auto9.4
Teleop21.6
End5.0
Third
5804
#23
29.90.2
29.329.4
Auto8.8
Teleop16.5
End4.6
blue by 2.6
2028
#37
32.50.4
32.032.3
Auto7.6
Teleop18.9
End5.9