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Red194
55840.9
19556.5
346131.9
Blue135
109933.1
568627.5
18134.6
78%Model gave it22%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions16111950100200250194135

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
195
#1
56.50.3
56.056.2
Auto12.1
Teleop37.6
End6.9
red by 21.9
181
#15
34.60.1
34.734.6
Auto9.8
Teleop18.9
End5.9
Second
558
#8
40.90.3
40.340.6
Auto8.6
Teleop27.5
End4.7
red by 7.8
33.10.1
33.233.1
Auto7.7
Teleop20.3
End5.1
Third
3461
#31
31.90.3
31.431.6
Auto10.6
Teleop17.2
End4.2
red by 4.5
27.50.1
27.627.5
Auto9.3
Teleop14.1
End4.1