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Red104
23445.1
82928.4
44738.3
Blue117
101827.9
152936.8
498241.1
42%Model gave it58%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions101109406080120140160180104117

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
234
#15
45.10.3
43.844.1
Auto14.1
Teleop24.8
End6.2
red by 4.0
4982
#12
41.10.8
41.242.0
Auto10.5
Teleop25.8
End4.8
Second
447
#23
38.30.3
31.431.7
Auto10.7
Teleop23.0
End4.5
red by 1.5
1529
#17
36.80.8
34.535.3
Auto9.7
Teleop22.4
End4.7
Third
829
#19
28.40.3
24.324.6
Auto5.8
Teleop18.0
End4.6
red by 0.5
1018
#21
27.90.8
28.829.6
Auto7.3
Teleop16.8
End3.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Breach
91%Breach oddsEarned91%Breach oddsEarned
Capture
22%Capture oddsMissed85%Capture oddsEarned