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Red124
492621.4
7144.9
594429.9
Blue108
219725.2
286722.6
102452.1
35%Model gave it65%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions8995607080100110120124108

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
71
#1
44.91.8
40.942.6
Auto12.0
Teleop20.5
End12.4
blue by 7.2
52.10.8
47.348.1
Auto10.1
Teleop36.6
End5.4
Second
5944
#19
29.91.8
28.029.8
Auto8.9
Teleop15.2
End5.7
red by 4.7
2197
#14
25.20.8
23.324.0
Auto4.0
Teleop13.8
End7.3
Third
4926
#26
21.41.8
18.620.4
Auto3.8
Teleop14.2
End3.4
blue by 1.2
2867
#33
22.60.8
20.621.4
Auto5.1
Teleop13.8
End3.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Breach
88%Breach oddsEarned82%Breach oddsMissed
Capture
8%Capture oddsEarned8%Capture oddsMissed