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Red131
277139.3
410337.4
448525.3
Blue107
46132.4
498241.6
318024.7
60%Model gave it40%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions13212480100140160180200131107

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
39.30.1
39.939.8
Auto9.2
Teleop27.2
End3.0
blue by 2.3
41.60.3
42.642.3
Auto8.3
Teleop27.6
End5.8
Second
37.40.1
37.937.8
Auto7.5
Teleop22.1
End7.7
red by 4.9
461
#8
32.40.3
33.533.1
Auto7.0
Teleop21.8
End3.6
Third
4485
#25
25.30.1
25.925.8
Auto8.0
Teleop14.8
End2.5
red by 0.7
3180
#23
24.70.3
25.725.3
Auto6.0
Teleop15.4
End3.2