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Red151
125736.0
180653.3
102451.9
Blue126
151134.4
174639.8
33062.3
53%Model gave it47%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions136134100120140160151126

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1806
#17
53.31.0
44.345.3
Auto13.8
Teleop35.1
End4.4
blue by 9.0
330
#23
62.30.4
58.357.9
Auto15.3
Teleop36.2
End10.8
Second
1024
#36
51.91.0
53.754.7
Auto13.5
Teleop32.8
End5.6
red by 12.1
1746
#45
39.80.4
42.241.8
Auto9.0
Teleop22.8
End8.0
Third
1257
#51
36.01.0
32.333.3
Auto10.7
Teleop18.9
End6.4
red by 1.6
1511
#37
34.40.4
31.631.2
Auto10.9
Teleop16.9
End6.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Breach
99%Breach oddsEarned99%Breach oddsEarned
Capture
78%Capture oddsEarned53%Capture oddsMissed