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Red70
346733.2
24631.9
107318.5
Blue117
81127.0
110029.3
490829.1
45%Model gave it55%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions10911070809010012013070117

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
33.20.4
33.733.2
Auto7.0
Teleop22.4
End3.8
red by 3.9
29.30.2
29.930.2
Auto7.4
Teleop18.5
End3.4
Second
246
#4
31.90.4
32.331.9
Auto11.3
Teleop16.8
End3.8
red by 2.7
4908
#23
29.10.2
29.830.0
Auto6.1
Teleop19.1
End4.0
Third
1073
#37
18.50.4
19.018.5
Auto3.3
Teleop12.9
End2.3
blue by 8.4
811
#25
27.00.2
27.627.8
Auto4.2
Teleop16.1
End6.7