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Red142
439143.8
125033.1
213741.5
Blue104
283444.0
295936.0
258635.2
42%Model gave it58%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions11612250100150200142104

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4391
#21
43.81.9
42.544.4
Auto15.6
Teleop22.1
End6.1
blue by 0.1
2834
#30
44.00.9
44.944.0
Auto12.8
Teleop27.5
End3.6
Second
2137
#77
41.51.9
39.741.6
Auto16.4
Teleop20.1
End5.0
red by 5.5
2959
#96
36.00.9
36.936.0
Auto9.9
Teleop21.0
End5.1
Third
1250
#52
33.11.9
31.533.4
Auto6.4
Teleop19.3
End7.3
blue by 2.2
2586
#50
35.20.9
36.235.2
Auto11.5
Teleop19.1
End4.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Breach
99%Breach oddsEarned99%Breach oddsEarned
Capture
25%Capture oddsEarned35%Capture oddsMissed