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Red150
546050.1
544841.1
170142.5
Blue122
205444.7
7438.7
439143.8
47%Model gave it53%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions11611880100140160150122

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5460
#26
50.12.4
39.441.9
Auto9.4
Teleop31.8
End8.8
red by 5.4
2054
#49
44.70.5
40.741.2
Auto13.5
Teleop26.2
End4.9
Second
1701
#33
42.52.4
41.143.6
Auto9.6
Teleop25.1
End7.8
blue by 1.3
4391
#21
43.80.5
35.435.9
Auto15.6
Teleop22.1
End6.1
Third
5448
#44
41.12.4
32.835.2
Auto13.3
Teleop18.3
End9.6
red by 2.5
74
#78
38.70.5
38.338.8
Auto11.5
Teleop16.5
End10.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Breach
96%Breach oddsEarned93%Breach oddsEarned
Capture
15%Capture oddsEarned11%Capture oddsEarned