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Qual 702016 Michigan State Championship
Red111
515539.8
261936.6
509027.7
Blue150
2753.4
3356.5
171128.4
18%Model gave it82%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions9413250150200250111150

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5155
#86
39.80.6
37.7→38.3
Auto9.8
Teleop24.4
End5.6
blue by 16.6
33
#10
56.51.8
50.9→52.7
Auto8.8
Teleop37.4
End10.2
Second
2619
#40
36.60.6
32.7→33.3
Auto11.4
Teleop19.9
End5.3
blue by 16.8
27
#2
53.41.8
50.5→52.3
Auto13.3
Teleop33.0
End7.1
Third
5090
#100
27.70.6
26.7→27.3
Auto5.4
Teleop18.4
End3.9
blue by 0.7
1711
#71
28.41.8
21.5→23.3
Auto10.6
Teleop15.3
End2.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Breach
96%Breach oddsEarned97%Breach oddsEarned
Capture
13%Capture oddsMissed22%Capture oddsEarned