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Semifinal 1-22016 Michigan State Championship
Red187
436244.6
247442.2
544841.1
Blue202
546050.1
515040.1
213741.5
54%Model gave it46%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions174172140150160180190200210187202

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4362
#18
44.60.3
45.1→45.4
Auto12.3
Teleop23.4
End8.8
blue by 5.5
5460
#26
50.10.5
49.0→49.6
Auto9.4
Teleop31.8
End8.8
Second
2474
#12
42.20.3
42.8→43.1
Auto10.7
Teleop24.8
End6.7
red by 0.7
2137
#77
41.50.5
40.5→41.0
Auto16.4
Teleop20.1
End5.0
Third
5448
#44
41.10.3
41.7→42.0
Auto13.3
Teleop18.3
End9.6
red by 1.0
5150
#4
40.10.5
39.1→39.6
Auto10.9
Teleop22.8
End6.5