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Red163
353437.7
515537.7
592628.9
Blue126
102533.3
609835.8
609030.8
59%Model gave it41%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions12811850100150200163126

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
37.70.4
36.937.3
Auto11.6
Teleop20.0
End6.1
red by 1.9
35.80.1
35.735.8
Auto12.1
Teleop16.8
End6.9
Second
37.70.4
36.937.3
Auto6.1
Teleop19.1
End12.5
red by 4.4
1025
#17
33.30.1
33.133.3
Auto5.6
Teleop21.0
End6.6
Third
5926
#29
28.90.4
28.128.4
Auto7.4
Teleop11.9
End9.6
blue by 2.0
6090
#18
30.80.1
30.730.8
Auto10.3
Teleop14.8
End5.8