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Red107
571229.9
361836.2
519320.9
Blue134
353834.8
261931.5
522220.3
58%Model gave it42%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions11110890100120130140107134

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
36.20.1
36.836.7
Auto11.0
Teleop21.2
End4.1
red by 1.5
34.80.1
34.734.8
Auto8.6
Teleop19.6
End6.6
Second
29.90.1
30.530.4
Auto9.3
Teleop15.6
End5.1
blue by 1.6
31.50.1
31.531.5
Auto9.1
Teleop18.3
End4.1
Third
5193
#22
20.90.1
21.120.9
Auto6.8
Teleop10.1
End4.0
red by 0.6
5222
#20
20.30.1
20.320.3
Auto6.9
Teleop10.6
End2.8