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Red110
251232.7
250130.7
478619.3
Blue105
331331.7
465627.4
87716.4
74%Model gave it26%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions103906080120140110105

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2512
#10
32.70.3
32.432.7
Auto10.7
Teleop17.4
End4.5
red by 1.0
3313
#13
31.70.3
31.331.7
Auto6.6
Teleop19.4
End5.7
Second
30.70.3
30.530.7
Auto7.4
Teleop17.6
End5.7
red by 3.3
27.40.3
27.027.4
Auto9.8
Teleop13.1
End4.5
Third
4786
#36
19.30.3
19.019.3
Auto4.8
Teleop12.0
End2.5
red by 2.9
877
#44
16.40.3
16.016.4
Auto6.5
Teleop7.8
End2.0