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Red124
493530.8
516033.2
366122.4
Blue98
479527.6
554424.4
43530.8
47%Model gave it53%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1061069010011012013012498

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
33.20.3
32.633.0
Auto9.4
Teleop19.7
End4.1
red by 2.4
435
#23
30.80.2
31.130.9
Auto8.6
Teleop19.4
End2.8
Second
30.80.3
30.330.6
Auto9.5
Teleop17.5
End3.8
red by 3.2
4795
#12
27.60.2
27.927.7
Auto6.8
Teleop15.8
End4.9
Third
3661
#29
22.40.3
21.922.2
Auto8.0
Teleop10.8
End3.7
blue by 2.0
24.40.2
24.824.5
Auto6.8
Teleop14.0
End3.6