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Red89
490634.4
50125.5
346738.6
Blue59
172928.8
105845.4
454632.3
40%Model gave it60%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions101111501502008959

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3467
Unranked
38.60.0
38.638.6
Auto6.7
Teleop28.1
End3.8
blue by 6.7
1058
Unranked
45.40.0
45.445.4
Auto8.8
Teleop26.0
End10.6
Second
4906
Unranked
34.40.0
34.434.4
Auto6.2
Teleop24.6
End3.6
red by 2.1
4546
Unranked
32.30.0
32.332.3
Auto9.0
Teleop18.6
End4.6
Third
501
Unranked
25.50.0
25.525.5
Auto10.4
Teleop10.7
End4.4
blue by 3.3
1729
Unranked
28.80.0
28.828.8
Auto9.4
Teleop14.0
End5.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Breach
92%Breach odds95%Breach odds
Capture
4%Capture odds21%Capture odds