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Red111
367430.5
281133.0
430922.5
Blue117
413225.8
237432.9
263522.3
54%Model gave it46%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions10698050150200250300111117

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
33.00.1
32.933.0
Auto10.4
Teleop17.7
End5.0
red by 0.1
32.90.4
32.733.1
Auto10.1
Teleop17.5
End5.3
Second
3674
#20
30.50.1
30.430.5
Auto7.6
Teleop17.7
End5.3
red by 4.7
25.80.4
25.626.0
Auto9.5
Teleop12.8
End3.6
Third
4309
#26
22.50.1
22.422.5
Auto9.8
Teleop9.4
End3.4
red by 0.2
2635
#21
22.30.4
22.222.5
Auto6.8
Teleop12.2
End3.3