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Red144
142542.1
198343.9
290733.8
Blue154
204641.1
154048.5
252232.1
54%Model gave it46%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions170165100150200250144154

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
43.90.1
45.345.2
Auto12.6
Teleop17.5
End13.9
blue by 4.6
48.50.5
49.448.9
Auto11.2
Teleop31.4
End5.9
Second
42.10.1
43.543.4
Auto7.8
Teleop20.7
End13.6
red by 1.0
2046
#27
41.10.5
42.041.5
Auto15.6
Teleop19.6
End5.8
Third
2907
#29
33.80.1
35.235.1
Auto10.2
Teleop18.4
End5.1
red by 1.7
2522
#28
32.10.5
33.032.6
Auto12.0
Teleop15.9
End4.2