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Red158
142542.1
198343.9
290733.8
Blue152
204641.1
154048.5
252232.1
55%Model gave it45%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions170164100150200250300158152

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
43.90.2
45.245.0
Auto12.6
Teleop17.5
End13.9
blue by 4.6
48.50.5
48.948.5
Auto11.2
Teleop31.4
End5.9
Second
42.10.2
43.443.2
Auto7.8
Teleop20.7
End13.6
red by 1.0
2046
#27
41.10.5
41.541.1
Auto15.6
Teleop19.6
End5.8
Third
2907
#29
33.80.2
35.134.9
Auto10.2
Teleop18.4
End5.1
red by 1.7
2522
#28
32.10.5
32.632.1
Auto12.0
Teleop15.9
End4.2