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Qual 492016 Tesla Division
Red104
503033.3
241543.8
356019.9
Blue112
572623.5
605522.9
621929.7
70%Model gave it30%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions9373050150104112

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2415
#51
43.80.8
41.7→42.5
Auto9.8
Teleop29.1
End4.9
red by 14.1
6219
#27
29.71.2
26.9→28.1
Auto10.5
Teleop14.2
End5.0
Second
5030
#57
33.30.8
27.8→28.6
Auto8.7
Teleop22.6
End2.0
red by 9.8
5726
#41
23.51.3
24.8→26.2
Auto7.0
Teleop14.1
End2.4
Third
3560
#74
19.90.8
17.5→18.3
Auto9.3
Teleop8.0
End2.6
blue by 3.0
6055
#58
22.91.3
22.1→23.4
Auto7.9
Teleop10.2
End4.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Breach
94%Breach oddsEarned74%Breach oddsEarned
Capture
1%Capture oddsMissed1%Capture oddsEarned