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Qual 702016 Tesla Division
Red112
613417.4
175637.7
301538.2
Blue72
503033.3
591223.5
151028.5
54%Model gave it46%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions908305015020025030035011272

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3015
#31
38.21.0
34.5→35.5
Auto10.9
Teleop22.2
End5.1
red by 4.9
5030
#57
33.31.0
30.2→29.2
Auto8.7
Teleop22.6
End2.0
Second
1756
#43
37.71.0
40.8→41.8
Auto13.6
Teleop19.2
End5.0
red by 9.2
1510
#61
28.51.0
27.7→26.8
Auto8.4
Teleop16.7
End3.4
Third
6134
#63
17.41.0
11.2→12.2
Auto2.6
Teleop11.3
End3.6
blue by 6.1
5912
#72
23.51.0
23.8→22.8
Auto9.2
Teleop11.5
End2.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Breach
87%Breach oddsEarned83%Breach oddsMissed
Capture
10%Capture oddsMissed3%Capture oddsMissed