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Red190
384733.9
348139.9
258521.8
Blue161
147736.4
45635.4
215835.8
33%Model gave it67%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions110145050200250300190161

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3481
Unranked
39.90.0
39.939.9
Auto7.3
Teleop28.7
End3.9
red by 3.5
1477
Unranked
36.40.0
36.436.4
Auto11.3
Teleop20.0
End5.1
Second
3847
Unranked
33.90.0
33.933.9
Auto9.2
Teleop19.8
End5.0
blue by 1.8
2158
Unranked
35.80.0
35.835.8
Auto10.2
Teleop19.0
End6.6
Third
2585
Unranked
21.80.0
21.821.8
Auto7.5
Teleop11.1
End3.1
blue by 13.7
456
Unranked
35.40.0
35.435.4
Auto11.7
Teleop17.0
End6.7