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Red134
129636.5
300539.8
598624.6
Blue167
23133.7
171033.4
399932.5
48%Model gave it52%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions125128050100150200250134167

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3005
Unranked
39.80.0
39.839.8
Auto11.4
Teleop21.9
End6.5
red by 6.1
231
Unranked
33.70.0
33.733.7
Auto10.3
Teleop18.7
End4.7
Second
1296
Unranked
36.50.0
36.536.5
Auto11.3
Teleop21.4
End3.9
red by 3.1
1710
Unranked
33.40.0
33.433.4
Auto8.4
Teleop20.9
End4.1
Third
5986
Unranked
24.60.0
24.624.6
Auto7.0
Teleop14.0
End3.6
blue by 7.9
3999
Unranked
32.50.0
32.532.5
Auto8.1
Teleop20.3
End4.1