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Red122
255745.4
204638.3
252234.4
Blue102
580337.5
281129.2
299035.5
62%Model gave it38%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions154134050100200250122102

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
45.40.0
45.445.4
Auto9.0
Teleop25.0
End11.3
red by 7.9
37.50.0
37.537.5
Auto7.2
Teleop19.5
End10.8
Second
38.30.0
38.338.3
Auto15.4
Teleop18.0
End4.8
red by 2.8
2990
#10
35.50.0
35.535.5
Auto10.7
Teleop19.1
End5.7
Third
34.40.0
34.434.4
Auto13.4
Teleop16.2
End4.8
red by 5.2
29.20.0
29.229.2
Auto6.4
Teleop17.9
End5.0