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Red261
485988.9
284691.9
324499.2
Blue205
313090.4
419890.9
304274.9
58%Model gave it42%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions300284150200250350400450261205

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
99.20.5
98.798.2
Auto11.2
Teleop50.8
End37.2
red by 8.3
90.91.2
91.490.2
Auto6.5
Teleop45.4
End39.0
Second
91.90.5
91.490.9
Auto10.7
Teleop45.6
End35.6
red by 1.4
3130
#10
90.41.2
90.989.7
Auto5.1
Teleop43.5
End41.8
Third
88.90.5
88.487.9
Auto11.5
Teleop38.0
End39.4
red by 14.0
3042
#18
74.91.2
75.474.2
Auto4.1
Teleop36.8
End33.9