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Red255
567958.3
2974111.1
5511103.3
Blue195
265570.5
429089.5
600448.2
77%Model gave it23%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions2992070100400500600255195

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
111.10.3
110.2109.8
Auto11.4
Teleop52.5
End47.3
red by 21.6
89.50.3
89.889.5
Auto6.9
Teleop35.6
End47.0
Second
103.30.3
102.4102.0
Auto14.7
Teleop41.4
End47.2
red by 32.8
2655
#17
70.50.3
70.870.5
Auto9.2
Teleop27.9
End33.4
Third
5679
#14
58.30.3
57.457.1
Auto6.0
Teleop21.1
End31.2
red by 10.2
6004
#23
48.20.3
48.548.2
Auto4.6
Teleop25.1
End18.5