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Red165
323891.2
451368.9
410435.8
Blue206
592083.9
159581.7
607647.1
51%Model gave it49%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions21122305001,0001,5002,0002,500165206

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
91.20.8
93.292.4
Auto13.6
Teleop47.0
End30.6
red by 7.3
83.90.1
82.982.8
Auto9.0
Teleop34.8
End40.1
Second
68.90.8
70.970.1
Auto9.4
Teleop38.0
End21.5
blue by 12.8
81.70.1
80.880.7
Auto10.6
Teleop36.8
End34.3
Third
4104
#18
35.80.8
37.937.1
Auto5.3
Teleop21.6
End9.0
blue by 11.3
6076
#23
47.10.1
46.246.1
Auto5.7
Teleop30.3
End11.2