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Red343
3853154.4
4146157.7
3019126.8
Blue368
6352156.5
1492160.8
6833147.9
36%Model gave it64%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions324373100200500600700343368

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
157.70.7
154.7155.5
Auto21.4
Teleop115.2
End23.5
blue by 3.1
160.80.6
159.7160.3
Auto19.3
Teleop121.4
End19.8
Second
154.40.5
152.2152.8
Auto17.6
Teleop114.1
End21.7
blue by 2.0
156.50.5
155.6156.1
Auto19.6
Teleop119.9
End15.1
Third
3019
#35
126.80.1
126.7126.7
Auto16.0
Teleop98.4
End11.6
blue by 21.1
6833
#34
147.90.0
148.0148.0
Auto15.8
Teleop106.4
End23.6