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Red324
4587181.1
5817161.7
5145137.4
Blue393
1939154.6
3230169.6
1817145.4
40%Model gave it60%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions315328250300350400450324393

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4587
#43
181.11.4
184.1182.7
Auto22.8
Teleop137.6
End22.6
red by 11.4
3230
#57
169.61.3
171.7170.3
Auto20.2
Teleop129.8
End18.8
Second
161.72.1
150.2152.4
Auto17.3
Teleop119.2
End29.2
red by 7.1
1939
#12
154.61.0
151.2152.2
Auto16.8
Teleop118.3
End19.5
Third
5145
#28
137.41.5
138.2136.7
Auto17.1
Teleop107.3
End16.0
blue by 8.0
1817
#20
145.41.1
137.0138.2
Auto18.0
Teleop111.4
End13.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto Quest
61%Auto Quest oddsEarned72%Auto Quest oddsEarned
Face the Boss
8%Face the Boss oddsEarned11%Face the Boss oddsMissed