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Red413
1501167.2
4485149.6
5010168.9
Blue232
3487148.8
1741182.9
5403163.4
54%Model gave it46%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions376370250300350400450500413232

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5010
#15
168.90.9
163.6164.5
Auto21.9
Teleop128.7
End20.5
blue by 14.0
182.91.0
187.0188.0
Auto23.0
Teleop129.0
End29.3
Second
1501
#22
167.20.3
172.8172.5
Auto21.5
Teleop122.3
End25.0
red by 3.8
5403
#16
163.40.3
167.2166.9
Auto24.0
Teleop114.0
End23.5
Third
4485
#23
149.61.1
143.7144.8
Auto20.5
Teleop112.0
End17.7
red by 0.9
3487
#25
148.80.2
156.7156.9
Auto19.7
Teleop109.1
End19.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto Quest
82%Auto Quest oddsEarned93%Auto Quest oddsEarned
Face the Boss
8%Face the Boss oddsMissed48%Face the Boss oddsMissed