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Red313
4485143.7
2171156.2
1720146.7
Blue420
4381146.8
4103157.5
234185.2
28%Model gave it72%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions301365100200400500600313420

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2171
#22
156.20.9
149.4150.3
Auto19.0
Teleop114.4
End22.2
blue by 29.0
234
#2
185.22.9
161.1164.0
Auto25.7
Teleop134.5
End27.1
Second
1720
#16
146.73.6
133.3136.9
Auto20.1
Teleop103.0
End25.3
blue by 10.8
157.51.8
146.7148.5
Auto21.6
Teleop116.1
End18.7
Third
4485
#18
143.71.0
138.4137.3
Auto19.2
Teleop108.9
End15.9
blue by 3.0
146.82.6
147.5144.9
Auto18.6
Teleop108.6
End19.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto Quest
58%Auto Quest oddsEarned80%Auto Quest oddsEarned
Face the Boss
4%Face the Boss oddsMissed5%Face the Boss oddsMissed