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Qual 142018 IROC
Red283
611149.3
619123.6
422150.8
Blue318
346166.6
122147.1
1086148.1
40%Model gave it60%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions27535002004006008001,000283318

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
422
#19
150.83.2
164.5→161.2
Auto18.6
Teleop121.9
End7.0
blue by 15.8
346
#2
166.61.3
171.5→170.2
Auto20.8
Teleop116.2
End29.6
Second
611
#14
149.30.9
146.6→147.5
Auto17.7
Teleop110.4
End21.1
red by 1.2
1086
#5
148.10.8
149.0→148.2
Auto27.5
Teleop112.4
End9.6
Third
619
#25
123.61.1
125.8→124.7
Auto16.1
Teleop94.1
End12.6
blue by 23.4
122
#3
147.10.8
148.0→147.2
Auto16.2
Teleop119.3
End12.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto Quest
59%Auto Quest oddsMissed94%Auto Quest oddsEarned
Face the Boss
8%Face the Boss oddsMissed17%Face the Boss oddsMissed