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Red158
365169.7
204111.5
4637116.0
Blue385
2180142.2
1712154.2
1279142.5
55%Model gave it45%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions3092850100200400500600158385

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
365
#2
169.711.8
114.0125.8
Auto22.7
Teleop132.1
End12.3
red by 15.5
154.214.4
89.3103.7
Auto25.6
Teleop116.2
End10.4
Second
4637
#25
116.015.2
81.796.9
Auto14.1
Teleop89.1
End17.9
blue by 26.5
1279
#28
142.514.5
88.0102.5
Auto19.7
Teleop107.7
End16.4
Third
204
#34
111.515.7
77.493.1
Auto15.7
Teleop87.8
End12.0
blue by 30.7
2180
#21
142.215.7
77.793.3
Auto19.3
Teleop100.9
End21.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto Quest
36%Auto Quest oddsMissed34%Auto Quest oddsMissed
Face the Boss
4%Face the Boss oddsMissed4%Face the Boss oddsMissed