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Qual 252018 Smoky Mountains Regional
Red278
3490132.6
5005107.7
4630133.1
Blue250
6157117.0
4013127.1
2973132.5
46%Model gave it54%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions278289100200400500278250

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4630
#22
133.110.0
98.0→108.0
Auto18.6
Teleop99.0
End15.5
red by 0.5
2973
#15
132.51.9
121.2→123.0
Auto19.5
Teleop96.3
End14.3
Second
3490
#6
132.60.5
127.4→126.8
Auto18.5
Teleop99.0
End13.8
red by 5.5
4013
#31
127.11.4
120.1→121.5
Auto18.9
Teleop94.5
End14.0
Third
5005
#27
107.71.1
100.9→102.1
Auto17.2
Teleop80.7
End10.2
blue by 9.3
6157
#39
117.07.9
89.1→97.0
Auto16.7
Teleop87.0
End16.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto Quest
40%Auto Quest oddsMissed33%Auto Quest oddsEarned
Face the Boss
8%Face the Boss oddsMissed3%Face the Boss oddsMissed