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Red290
4219124.2
4192150.2
6133119.8
Blue15
675185.5
5726120.4
6898128.7
78%Model gave it22%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions386235010020030050060070029015

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4192
Unranked
150.20.0
150.2150.2
Auto20.0
Teleop116.1
End15.0
red by 21.4
6898
Unranked
128.70.0
128.7128.7
Auto19.1
Teleop93.4
End19.0
Second
4219
Unranked
124.20.0
124.2124.2
Auto17.3
Teleop83.8
End26.0
red by 3.8
5726
Unranked
120.40.0
120.4120.4
Auto17.4
Teleop85.5
End17.4
Third
6133
Unranked
119.80.0
119.8119.8
Auto15.9
Teleop87.6
End17.2
red by 34.3
6751
Unranked
85.50.0
85.585.5
Auto12.8
Teleop68.2
End3.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto Quest
60%Auto Quest odds29%Auto Quest odds
Face the Boss
7%Face the Boss odds5%Face the Boss odds