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Red344
401142.6
2534158.4
4505133.9
Blue405
3274140.1
3939122.5
6802147.6
62%Model gave it38%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions348310100200400500600344405

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2534
#11
158.41.5
155.4156.9
Auto18.3
Teleop118.9
End22.9
red by 10.8
6802
#18
147.60.5
146.3146.8
Auto20.4
Teleop113.4
End17.1
Second
401
#15
142.60.9
140.9141.7
Auto19.4
Teleop106.7
End16.3
red by 2.6
140.11.9
135.1136.9
Auto15.0
Teleop110.8
End19.2
Third
4505
#25
133.90.9
132.7133.6
Auto16.4
Teleop105.1
End13.1
red by 11.4
3939
#30
122.50.6
121.8122.5
Auto16.2
Teleop96.2
End14.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto Quest
59%Auto Quest oddsEarned30%Auto Quest oddsEarned
Face the Boss
3%Face the Boss oddsMissed3%Face the Boss oddsEarned