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Red381
4488170.2
2928139.7
1258112.6
Blue267
4915165.0
4309129.7
4060120.7
34%Model gave it66%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions306329150200250350400450500381267

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
170.20.0
160.7160.7
Auto20.6
Teleop125.7
End25.8
red by 5.2
4915
#20
165.00.5
170.3169.8
Auto24.3
Teleop116.0
End24.4
Second
139.71.1
110.7111.8
Auto20.2
Teleop100.8
End18.5
red by 10.0
4309
#12
129.70.8
131.7132.5
Auto18.2
Teleop88.9
End23.8
Third
1258
#27
112.69.0
93.6102.6
Auto15.4
Teleop88.5
End11.7
blue by 8.1
4060
#19
120.71.6
110.8112.4
Auto17.1
Teleop93.9
End11.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto Quest
21%Auto Quest oddsEarned61%Auto Quest oddsEarned
Face the Boss
4%Face the Boss oddsMissed2%Face the Boss oddsMissed