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Red133
418852.0
691943.6
682914.9
Blue123
174644.7
418937.8
565126.7
46%Model gave it54%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions118123050100150200250300133123

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
52.00.6
50.551.1
Auto18.9
Teleop10.0
End23.1
red by 7.3
44.70.4
44.744.4
Auto10.8
Teleop17.5
End16.3
Second
43.60.6
42.142.7
Auto12.4
Teleop7.9
End23.3
red by 5.7
37.80.4
37.937.6
Auto10.6
Teleop7.9
End19.3
Third
6829
#34
14.90.6
13.414.0
Auto4.8
Teleop3.5
End6.6
blue by 11.8
5651
#23
26.70.4
26.726.4
Auto7.5
Teleop10.7
End8.5